A number of organizations have popped up over the past several years with a core message that British Columbia is running out of electricity. For that reason, governments should pause programs aimed at accelerating electric vehicles and heat pump adoption along with electrifying new construction and heating. These groups point to the fact that—over the past several years of exceptional drought—the province has imported more electricity than it has exported. This signals that the province’s utilities are unable to meet current demand, let alone future demand.
This picture is not just incomplete—it’s largely incorrect.
First, the province’s electricity system is currently in good shape. With Site C now fully operational, B.C.’s energy exports are soaring. In addition, the province’s electricity grid can not only handle more EVs and heat pumps, but these technologies can reduce grid demand while saving British Columbians money.
The numbers speak for themselves. From January to October (the latest month data are available), BC Hydro was able to buy low and sell high—with electricity export prices almost 50 per cent higher than import prices—resulting in nearly $290 million more electricity exported than imported over the 10-month period. The completion of Site C in August further changed the game. For September and October—Site C’s first full operational months—B.C. exported 54 per cent more power than it imported, resulting in almost $247 million in electricity exports in just two months.
And remember, unlike other energy exports where most profits flow to foreign shareholders, BC Hydro is a Crown utility, meaning this $290 million stays right here in B.C., which translates directly into lower rates for you and me.
The second falsehood is that if British Columbians switch to EVs and heat pumps too quickly, then the grid will be compromised. Recent modelling commissioned by Clean Energy Canada concludes that switching all of B.C.’s heating and cooling systems to heat pumps would result in net savings of 800 gigawatt-hours per year—enough electricity saved to power around 75,000 homes—compared to current annual usage for heating and cooling. And on top of that, every home in B.C. would have efficient cooling. This is primarily because heat pumps are three to five times more efficient than the electric baseboards currently in 42 per cent of B.C. homes. It’s true that peak demand would still increase overall, but this can be managed with energy efficient building and modern technology—from smart thermostats to programmable water heaters to EV chargers and batteries that collectively help flatten peaks.
On EVs, BC Hydro estimates that meeting B.C.’s current EV sales target of 90 per cent by 2030 would only increase electricity demand by about two per cent. And how might EVs help make the grid stronger? In addition to measures like off-peak charging, there are EVs for sale right now that have vehicle-to-home capabilities, allowing your EV to provide power to your home in case of emergencies. And new EVs will soon be grid-enabled, meaning utilities—like BC Hydro and FortisBC—will be able to use your EV battery to reinforce the grid in times of need and recharge your EV when power is cheapest. In the next several years, your EV will not only be a grocery-getter but an important component in the province’s energy system.
Clean electricity is B.C.’s competitive advantage. This should be a no-regrets option and central to the province’s economic agenda. But if Premier David Eby indeed wants B.C. to be a “clean energy superpower,” his government needs to back up his vision with more than a just-in-time plan to meet our 2030 and 2035 electricity needs. This begins with predictable clean power calls from BC Hydro and starting now on the comprehensive planning of B.C.’s energy system out to 2050 that includes the integration and utilization of smarter technologies that make consumers part of the solution.
The pace and scale of electrification here in B.C. and globally is awe-inspiring. The province can either seize its advantage or watch from the sidelines. For now, there is no near-term threat to B.C.’s grid, even in our most climate-ambitious scenarios. Maintaining a healthy grid in the coming decades requires planning and investment now.
This post was co-authored by Evan Pivnick and first appeared in Business in Vancouver.
